序幕

“8月16日至17日，山东新泰地区连续集中降雨达205毫米，引发山洪暴发，导致当地的柴汶河东都河堤被冲垮，决堤的河水进入西都沙井后溃入附近的矿井下，造成当地两座煤矿的181名矿工被困在井下。”

中新网用这样的语句，总结了山东新汶煤矿透水事故的发生经过。而对于事故的原因，事故抗险救援专家组组长卜昌森的解释如下：

造成溃水的主要原因：

一是突降暴雨。今年以来，新泰地区降雨比去年同期多35%，比历年多39%。8月16日至17日两天，新泰地区平均降雨量为70年一遇，到8月18日止，3天降雨量达到50年一遇；

二是山洪暴发。溃水处上游的山区丘陵地区的地表为很难渗透的土壤结构，大面积的地表水汇总形成山洪；

三是河水猛涨。据核算，最大洪峰达到了1800立方/秒，上游是由两条河道汇总，河水暴涨、漫河过堤；

四是河堤决口。发洪水的柴汶河又是极不规则的河床，因沙土土质松软经洪水浸泡很快决堤；

五是决堤淹井。柴汶河决堤之后，洪水进入多年挖沙的沙场，沙场与废弃的西都矿矿井相通，从而形成了洪水冲入西都矿井直接淹井。

由此，“溃水事故抢险专家组的专家经分析认为，溃水事故属于自然灾害事故。”

天灾兮？人祸兮？

然而，在我国数千年来浩如烟海的文字记载中，对天灾和人祸的表述一直都是很难分家的。通过对六十余名矿工家属的独家专访，记者了解到，本次山东淹井事故，就是“天灾人祸本一家”的沉重注解。

如果措施得力，所有这些人祸都完全可以避免。换句话说，一百七十二名矿工兄弟的命，本来是能够救得了的。

可现在，他们都已经永不瞑目地长眠于地下了。不久以后，记者采访过的每一位家属，只要还有口气在，都会披麻戴孝，三五成群，并行于市。在农村，每一名矿工都至少有五十多位亲属。也就是说，一百七十二人的命，会有将近一万村民日夜牵挂着。到矿工遗体最终得见天日的时候，等待着这些冤魂的将是一场多么沉郁、悲壮而宏大的白事！

如果地方政府在柴汶河河堤出现裂缝以来的三十多年间，在1989年第一次决堤后，哪怕是在2002年至今的任何一年开展过任何规模、任何性质的维护工作，这场白事都是无需操办的。

无数的当地群众和矿工家属告诉我，连续六年来，年年都会决堤。三十三岁的小陈说，水最多的一次，已经淹到了井下矿工的小腿肚。一名由于“害怕企业法人打击报复”而不愿透露身份的华源职工补充道，去年也爆发了一次水灾，“但规模小，没死太多人。”

退一步讲，如果华源矿业有限公司调度室在8月17日事故发生当日上午能够及时听取职工汇报，这场白事也是无需操办的。

公司水泵工XX当天负责开关水泵。清晨八点来钟，她发现水位表出现问题，于是马上致电调度室。那里的工作人员告诉她：没事，因为大雨，水位表不准了嘛。她立刻注意到，水位一定是超过了两米到两点三米的警戒线－要出事了。从那时到上午十点多，她连续七八次电话汇报险情，但始终无人过问。

她二十九岁的堂弟小X就在井里。这是他在矿上的第六个年头。他去年结婚，妻子在8月6号刚刚产下一子。如果不是为了那可能挣到的两千块月工资，他说啥也不会在孩子没足月的时候下井。但在洪水季节，矿工每一天不下井，就会被扣一百块工钱。在月均工资不满五百块钱的新泰市，工人们只能拼出命来冒这个险。

一位逃生的矿工对XX说他见到小X就在后面不远，本可以自己上井，却被身旁的工头勒令抢救其它矿工。于是现在，他仍在井下。

再退一步讲，如果华源公司在当天中午能够及时服从市安监局对所有当地煤矿紧急下达的命令，或者是执行该局负责人连续六次电话通知精神的任何一次，哪怕就是听听那天早班工人关于已经发现出水的集体汇报，不再安排工人下井，这场白事都是无需操办的。

对文括（化名）来说，如果他哥哥文晨曲（化名）听劝，兄弟俩一起在别的矿上干活，晨曲就不会把命搭上了。17号当天，文括所在的矿接到了安监局的通知，宣布停产。而他急匆匆地赶到华源的时候，为时已晚，哥哥已经在井下了。

退一万步讲，如果华源副总经理皇甫廷平和张灿君等一众高管能够在事故发生后及时向上级领导汇报灾情，如果他们没有在17号下午两点四十到四点钟的一个多小时内一直知情不报，如果他们没有在此期间内赶到现场指挥公司员工，妄图以一己之力堵上决口，如果他们在这亡羊补牢的时候里给井下的工人打上哪怕一个救命的电话，这场白事都是无需操办的。

“他们这是杀人哪！”曹X的眼泪差不多哭干了，只能哑着嗓子低嚎。她的丈夫在井下泡着。两口子八岁的小孩以后该怎么活呢？

弟弟在井下的赵老师说：“如果解放军战士那个时候就能来，他们就不需要35个小时堵决口，几个小时就能够堵上了。解放军真是我们最可爱的人，他们靠着什么？每个人只发两个火烧、一根火腿肠和一瓶矿泉水，就能把那么大的决口给堵上。他们靠着什么？那些矿主们又靠着什么？”

让我们一路倒退到头，在预防不力之后，在管理不善之后，在天灾降临之后，在知情不理之后，在瞒情不报之后，在一切的一切之后，决口被堵上了，排水工作开始了。如果18号中午从淄博调来的四台水泵能用得上，这场白事都不一定需要大操大办。直到把四台泵调来之后，抢险组的工作人员才发现，泵是不能用的。这究竟耽搁了几个小时呢？

8月21日下午，卜昌森和国家安全生产小组专家程卫民在新闻发布会上分别承认，截止到当时为止，真正用着的水泵只有四台，投入使用的时间分别是：18日下午一台；19日晚八点二十分一台；20日早晨七点十分两台。在这四台中，一台来自华源公司所属的新矿集团，一台来自河南郑州，两台来自当地抢险队的泵房预备。也就是说，群众的眼睛是雪亮的，他们的话是没错的，代省长姜大明在20日傍晚痛哭流涕地对家属所说的也是真实的：四台水泵中，有三台是华源本来就有的！

排水工作的决策失误、失当、失职和对家属、对媒体、对社会的虚假宣传，条条致命。

自19日凌晨排水工作开始至今，每台水泵的排水量究竟是多少呢？

先听听矿工家属的介绍：“水泵有三种。小型的每小时排水300立方左右，中等的排1000，大型的能达到2000以上。”

而在22号中午11点45分，中煤集团所谓“世界上最大也最先进的”一台每小时排水1000立方米的水泵投入使用后，新华社的报道是这样的：“目前井下积水的抽排速度明显加快，每小时排水量已由前一日的660立方米增加到目前的1500立方米以上，比前一日增加了一倍多。”

从19日到22日这三天半的时间内，排水工作的进度还用多说吗？

尾声

这一百七十二个人，本来都是可以救出来的。他们都是壮劳力，平均年龄不过三十五岁上下，其中最年轻的一个小伙子刚二十二岁，才订婚不久；一个青年的妻子不久前才怀孕；一个儿子的父亲数年前死于矿难，现在自己又深陷地下；一个父亲从井下逃了出来，发现自己的儿子还在下面，又义无反顾地跳了下去，这一跳就再没出来。

如果－如果任何一个如果成立，那么这场即将来临的万人白事会就不会成为现实。可是哪有什么如果！年迈的家属们在医院里静静地躺着，旁边是沉默无语的中青年，怀里抱着还不知事的娃娃。他们的儿子、兄弟、丈夫、父亲就在井下。终有一日，一百七十二名矿工不成形状的遗体将被一块块地捞出。那时将会发生什么故事呢？我不知道，他们不知道，我们身边虎视眈眈的便衣们不知道，便衣们手机电话簿里存着的那些号码的持有者们也不会知道。可以知道的是，这些矿工们的命运，就掌握在矿主和抢险决策者的手里。后者的某一闪念，就可以并已经决定了一百七十二位阶级兄弟的生命，也改变了不知多少遇难者家属的人生轨迹。

天灾人祸，怎能分离。

此祭。

- Excerpt from Aug 21:

XINTAI, Shandong – While experts stress the natural cause of a disaster which has trapped 172 workers in a flooded mine since last Friday, relatives of the men insist with new evidence that human misdeed was the major cause of the tragedy.

“A rain of this volume comes around once every 70 years,” hydraulic engineer Yin Changwen told a press briefing Tuesday afternoon.

“The well is deep and the road is far…rescuers are in a very difficult situation,” added Bu Changsen, flood prevention researcher and chief of the experts’ rescue team.

Because of this, he said the fact that 584 workers could manage to escape was a result of “timely and appropriate” measures.

But as hope dissolves among relatives of the trapped men, one of them stood out and argued otherwise.

A mid-aged female Huayuan worker who supervised water pumps on the very day of the accident told China Daily in an exclusive interview that she had reported to the company numerous flood warnings hours before the tragedy.

“It was just past eight in the morning last Friday when I found irregularities with the water gauge. I called control center right away, and was told the gauge had broken because of high water levels.”

Realizing water levels must have exceeded the gauge’s limit mark, she asked the center to bring alert attention, but nobody took notice.

“I called them seven or eight times from then till after ten in the morning, and there was no response,” she said.

The interview took place Tuesday morning at Huayuan hospital, filled with passed-out senior relatives of the men in the mine, including her younger cousin’s mother, who was sent in shortly after nine.

Her cousin is 29 years old with a wife who just gave birth to a baby 10 days before the accident.

According to the anonymous worker and other sources, a miner who managed to escape on Friday saw her cousin near the surface of the mine, but the young father was ordered not to run and instead stay and rescue other workers.

“We still know nothing of the rescue plan and its progress,” several relatives noted.

This common concern led to the set up of an official information office Monday morning. But frustration grew as time went on and the relatives, still without a working channel of regular briefings, soon turned violent.

By Monday afternoon, they had broken into Huayuan’s southern gate through security lines, and inquired a receptionist about the rescue efforts’ latest updates.

“The guy said he would call a meeting, and went back to his office inside the building. But half an hour later, there was still no response and we were tired of waiting,” said Zhao, a 37-year-old elementary teacher whose younger brother is inside the mine, and whose parents are in the hospital.

When the relatives entered the office, the receptionist had jumped out through the rear window. It was not until a while later that Shandong’s acting governor Jiang Daming came out and met the crowd.

“Our hearts are as sad as yours,” Jiang said in tears, promising each related household a 2000-yuan subsidy.

The money was soon delivered to the families, but it is their fathers, brothers, husbands and sons that these relatives truly worry about.

Jiang also purportedly said that as of Monday, the only working pumps were the three small ones owned by Huayuan. Installation of the other pumps was still under way.

However, Cheng Weimin, a safety management expert, said four pumps were operating as of Tuesday afternoon.

Bu acknowledged workers’ earlier claims that the four pumps first mobilized to the site from Shandong’s Zibo city last Saturday were all unusable.

His introduction of the working four is also in line with Jiang’s speech. “One is from Xinkuang Group, Huayuan’s owner, another from Zhengzhou of the central Henan Province, and the remaining two were from local pump rooms,” Bu said.

While rescuing efforts continue, probe work on the accident has already been reported to relevant departments, head of General Administration of Work Safety Li Yizhong said earlier Tuesday.

- Excerpts from August 20:

XINTAI, Shandong - Even at only six in the morning, the sun was already beginning to burn outside the heavily guarded southern gate of Huayuan Mining Co. Ltd., where dozens of people stand together and chat in concerned low voices.

The soil is dry, as if it never rained. But everyone knows that somewhere inside the gate, 172 people have been trapped in a flooded coalmine since last Friday afternoon, when pouring rain stormed into the mine through an obsolete shaft.

None among the gathering morning crowd knows any of the 172 miners; it is no more than a shared empathy that grouped them together. Some are starting to swear while others sob, including a mid-aged woman who traveled and walked for hours to get here, in the mere hope of hearing in person those magic words from the authorities: our workers are saved; they’re okay.

But that assurance never came. As time goes by, the workers stand a smaller and smaller chance of survival. People on the outside are getting increasingly anxious about what’s happening – or not happening in the mines. Clashes between them and the gate guards broke out several times, resulting in nothing other than sorrows, wounds and tears.

Inside the gate sit over 20 Shandong police and security personnel, standing or sitting speechless in and out of the small patrol room. Some try to joke around, but to no avail. Nothing else was on their mind except the same question that’s bothering the outsiders: what’s going on in there?

The 50-meter levee breach on Friday was closed Sunday by over 2,000 People’s Liberation Army (PLA) forces, armed police and miners. According to officials, the pumping process has entered its second day smooth and sound. But still, the local police bureau chief said it might take about 20 days to pump all the water out.

By nine, three mothers and wives of the 172 have managed to break through the gate’s entrance. The police line attempted to resist for a while, before soon collapsing in separate segments like broken robins’ eggs. The women throw themselves to the ground, crying in unintelligible tones for their loved ones, cursing and hitting anyone who tries to come near.

The police, security as well as a doctor and nurse who have been called up to help stare at each other in frustration, a few with tears in their own eyes.

It is another hour before the last lady is escorted to the other side of the gate.

“Their emotions are understandable,” a police officer said, “I understand them.”

“That mine owner is damn inhumane,” another murmured to himself.

Xintai is not the most well known of China’s “garden-like cities” – and for good reasons too. A city of 1.3 million, its high plantation coverage rate corresponds well to its amount of roads covered with mud – Xintai has only two decent asphalt roads: Development Blvd and Qinglong Rd.

The city-level prefecture is much better known for its coalmines. Most young people work in the mines and receive on average only 500 yuan per month.

“Otherwise, they’ll make no more than 100 yuan for each mu of land, growing corn or wheat,” said 37-year-old Zhao, whose younger brother is trapped – or dead – inside the mine.

He said over-exploitation of resources has exhausted the city’s underground water. Its remaining water sources have also been contaminated. In a village nearby Huayuan, almost ten people have already died of cancer since this year, according to Zhao.

A miner could receive over 2,000 yuan a month, though. The cost: 12 hours or more a day under the mine. They go down the mine at 11:45am each day and don’t come back up until midnight.

“The managers force workers to stay under the mine,” said 33-year-old Chen, whose elder brother is also among the trapped. “Workers are fined 50 yuan on regular days and 100 yuan during flood seasons for not going under the mine and not staying there for enough overtime.”

This is not to mention Xintai’s widespread usage of migrant workers, whose short-term work contracts contain no weekends, holidays, medical or work insurance. 61 of the 172 miners are reportedly under these contracts.

“You ask what can I tell you of the miners here? Grandpa’s buried underground, father’s on his way, and son’s all prepared,” Zhao said.

According to nearly 20 relatives of the 172, human error played a bigger role than chance in the accident.

A retired worker in his 60s told China Daily yesterday that the levee had been a problem for several years. He said it first flooded in 1989. Other people said the mine had flooded every year since 2002.

"Water was at calf level the first time the mine flooded. The managers must have thought it would be the same this time around," said Chen.

A miner who works for Huayuan Mining Co, but who declined to be identified, said the mine had experienced a similar accident last year, but on a smaller scale.

"Only a few died," he added.

Huayuan also purportedly received six consecutive phone calls from the Xintai Administration of Work Safety on August 17, before the accident, and took no action.

The administration is said to have issued a notice to all local coalmines, which urged them to stop production and evacuate miners in face of torrential rain.

Huayuan vice general manager Zhang Canjun refuted the allegation, saying it was “absolutely impossible” without further elaboration.

But Chang Luo (not his real name), a worker at a nearby mine, said he was evacuated around noon last Friday while his brother, Huayuan miner Chang Chenqi (not real name), continued working and is still stuck someplace underground.

In addition to refusing to take the work safety agency’s orders, Huayuan is also criticized for sending workers underground knowing that the mine could flood.

“The workers from the daily shift, most of whom managed to escape, reported to the management of rising water levels and submerged work areas, but the company never did anything,” said a man surnamed Cao.

His brother-in-law is flooded in the mine – his elder sister flooded with tears.

Liu, a resident of Xidu village, which is near the site of the accident, said that miners were not the only people hurt by the levee break.

"An old guard from a brick factory at our village was the first to arrive at the scene. He fell and was immediately submerged," he said.

The relatives of the miners said that what angered them most was that Huayuan's management apparently did not try hard enough to rescue their loved ones. The company tried to close the breach with its own force instead of reporting for help.

“We saw with our very eyes that around 3pm on Friday, a group of Huayuan managers, including deputy mine operator Huangfu Tingping, were on site directing rescuers to close the breach with small agricultural vehicles,” Chen said.

They said the miners all had cell phones with them, and the managers could have tried to but didn’t contact them from ground level as rescuers in Henan Province did earlier this month.

“This delayed the best chance to save our brothers,” Zhao added, “If the PLA and the armed police were there around that time, they would definitely be out by now.”

Not only that, the four pumps that were first mobilized to the site from Shandong’s Zibo city on the 18^th were all “unusable”, a mine manager purportedly told concerned crowds. The pumps from Henan arrived that night, but haven’t been used either.

The average age of the 172 trapped miners is around 35 years old, Zhao and Chen said. “We’re not the worst among our brothers and sisters – a father managed to escape at the time of flood, but directly went underground again after knowing his son was still underground. He has stayed there ever since.

“The youngest kid is only 22 and just engaged; another’s wife was recently pregnant; still another’s father died in a coalmine accident years ago, and is now dying or dead.”

“We just want our family back,” the relatives all said.

But time is running out. Ba Yanping, general manager of the China Coal Group, said two of the world’s best pumps are under installation and will be put to use soon.

That’ll take at least two days, he said.

刚刚得到消息，常宁市计委即将发放对14个养猪专业户的扶持资金，每户政府补帖10万元猪场建设费用，上周刚刚采访的张兴荣也是其中之一。由衷地为他们感到高兴。但不知怎地，我只能想起曹征路《那儿》的后三段。朝阳如此光明，只是太不安静。

张兴荣是网景公司（Netscape）公共网页目录（Open Directory Project，简称ODP）的义务编辑。他每个月都会从谷歌公司（Google）收到一张一百美元左右的支票，作为在个人网站上刊登其广告的报酬。他的网站是中国养猪网（pig.org.cn）：如果把“养猪”作为关键词输入，这将是谷歌上的第一个搜索结果。他是网站的创始人、程序员、操作者及其附属论坛的版主。此外，他还是湖南联通的社会监督员，月收入四百多块。

而他只不过是湖南省常宁市宜潭乡梅塘村一位以养猪为生的普通农民。

初中毕业后，张兴荣参了军，在哈尔滨某地的野战部队里服役三年。从复原之日起，他就一头扎进了猪市。这是1997年的事。猪价在那年早些时候达到高峰，于是村里很多人都养起了猪。连他的父亲也兴之所至，在家门口不远处修建了两个猪舍－张兴荣现在用来养猪的，也正是这两个猪舍。

那段时间里，张兴荣开始在常宁一家养猪的公司工作，一直到1999年公司派他到刚刚成立的广州办事处。在羊城的养猪销售业摸爬滚打了三年后，他满怀信心地回到故乡，准备大展拳脚，而机会也适时而降。这一次，常宁市供销经贸总公司成了他的幸运星。张兴荣在外的几年，该公司通过张父的关系在村里租了几百亩土地－租金在一年七八万上下，又通过几十万的信贷建起了养猪的配套设施。到他返乡的时候，公司在梅塘村的这点生意已经难以为继，没钱还帐，只能靠出租猪场，用它的近两千头小猪来抵债。

但在从其父手中接管这批小猪之后，年轻的张兴荣很快就为自己管理经验的缺乏付出了代价。在连续惨淡经营几年后，小门面重蹈常宁经贸总公司的覆辙，于2004年宣布破产。

这时猪价又攀高峰，达到了五块钱一斤。于是，张兴荣决定用父亲盖的猪舍东山再起。自当年建军节重新开张的那天起，他就开始踏踏实实地从几十头猪养起，直到现在。

养猪之余，张兴荣自学了电脑知识，并很快就像城市里的孩子们一样，疯狂地迷恋起了上网。不久，他开始申请成为网景ODP的中文编辑，因为觉得“这工作非常有意义”。

在递交了数次申请和几个月的漫长等待后，他终于通过批准，成为了ODP百多个中文编辑里唯一的农民。这时候，个人电脑技术的提高和他同各地养猪户进行网络交流的强烈愿望交汇到了一起，张兴荣以一己之力创办了名为“养猪合作社”的网站。

从那时起到现在，在清晨六点起床后，他几乎每天都是这样安排时间的：给猪洗澡、喂食；更新已重命名为“中国养猪网”的网站内容；与网友通过网站的论坛进行在线交流；跟一些其他养猪户和IT界的朋友在自己创建的两个QQ群上聊天。如果还没到半夜的休息时间，他就会静下心来，做些ODP的编辑工作。

从去年起，他每个月还都要抽出一天的工夫来为湖南联通开展地方的监督调研活动。

他说自己很感激悉心照顾一对儿女的妻子和两年来一直帮他养猪的弟弟，因为没有他们，自己很难做那么多养猪之外的事情。

张兴荣的家庭成员及主要资产 

结婚六年的妻子；女儿六岁，儿子两岁；父亲：村支书，五十六岁；姐姐：新五丰集团厨子，三十四岁；弟弟：猪农，二十七岁；建了十六年的房子，两个十年前盖的猪舍，一辆八年前买的摩托，一部五年前买的电脑，二百四十多头猪，十几只鸡

按：猪肉价格暴涨正在给全国百姓带来越来越大的生活压力。但它对普通猪农的影响，难道就一定是积极的吗？在前一轮猪价狂跌潮中倒掉的广大猪农显然不是这么想的，而对于那些坚持至今的小专业户来说，情况也绝不乐观。《中国日报》记者深入湖南昔日养猪大市常宁的农村地区进行了为期三天（2007年8月7日至9日）的实地采访调查。调查的基本结论是：蓝耳疫情依旧肆虐，市场行情与风险难以捉摸，外界智力与资金支持的缺乏仍使基层农户感到彷徨无助，而地方政府的行政缺位甚至权力滥用更是让他们有口难言。对于农村养猪户这个相对孤立的群体来说，未来依然迷茫。

张兴荣家在农村，县城就在十里之外。确切地说，县城就在四十多个锐角弯、十个钝角弯和一座四十多岁从未整修的石桥之外。这里没有公路，有的是沟壑，有的是碎石，有的是坑洞，有的是土尘。在我首次张家之旅开始后的五分钟内，他那台老摩托的左反光镜就在重重颠簸中应声而落，而他却毫不在意。

也难怪，和他更加坎坷的养猪生涯相比，这点颠簸又算得了什么呢？

别的不提，对他来讲，即便是晚夏高温带来的打击，就已经打消掉了一大半猪价升温所伴随的喜悦。我登门拜访前一周的某日清晨六点，张兴荣发现，猪舍里剩下两头母猪里的一头要产仔了。那天，它差点就一窝产下十九头小猪－这相当于一般小专业户母猪三胎的总和。如果一切顺利，它本将创下张兴荣个人养猪史的一个记录。但母猪终究没有力气破这个记录。它中暑了。

到了晚上，他把十七头死猪一头接着一头地从母猪的子宫里拽了出来。这时，母猪和它身边两头还活着的猪仔都撑不住了。

他只有一个念头：母猪死不得。

太阳再次升起的时候，张兴荣已经给母猪输完了两瓶葡萄糖和两瓶盐水。母猪保全了。但它还是虚弱，连续病了三天，不吃一点东西。没有营养就没有乳汁，没有乳汁就没有小猪。一周之内，两只猪仔都死了。

闻蓝耳色变

死了十九头小猪，就是亏了五千块钱。可在湖南省衡阳市常宁市这个八十四万六千居民的县级市，张家的遭遇怎么都得算幸运了。因为使邻近的各户养猪人家如临大敌的不只是中暑，更是让他们闻之色变的蓝耳病毒。

“蓝耳病的变异比较快，”张兴荣介绍说：“现在主要的是高致病性蓝耳病。以前那种常规性蓝耳病只是造成母猪流产，不会对猪场的肥猪、小猪造成很大影响，最多也不过就是影响小猪的生长速度。但是现在，病猪都已经变异了。只要在猪场发现高致病性蓝耳病，措施稍不得力，猪场的猪就肯定全部死光。”

提起蓝耳病，上洞村大洞组组员李小满绝对是一腔苦水：他唯一的一头母猪和九头小猪在八月六号都死了，死因就是蓝耳病。从发病到死亡，一共只用了五天。在这个村里，被迫因此放弃养猪的远不止他一个。八月以来，大洞组饲养的九头母猪和九十头小猪均已死于蓝耳病。村民们不傻，他们知道得了蓝耳病的猪大多都是治不活的。可这都是大家辛辛苦苦养的猪，“能不治吗？”三千多块钱就这样打了水漂。

李小满有两个小孩，一个正上高中，一个在读初中。养猪失败后，留给这位父亲的挣钱余地就剩下了种田和基建，但不论哪一样都供不起两个读书娃。

“肯定有一个没得书读，”他苦着脸对记者说。

这就是常宁，一个上世纪七十年代远近闻名的杂交水稻大县。改革开放以来，稻田日渐荒芜，人们养起了猪，常宁也就此变成了国家级的养猪大县。在九十年代的养猪黄金期，每个村的每户人－另一说是百分之九十五的农民－都至少要养一头母猪。养猪户们比划着对我说，那时每天总得有十几车“大货”，每辆都满载着一百三十多头猪，浩浩荡荡地从常宁开往广东。

但物到极处，终究是要反的。到了1997年下半年，人满为患的猪市终于大跌，猪肉的最低价掉到了一块八一斤。养猪不仅不赚钱，反而要赔钱了。在持续将近两年的低谷里，绝大多数养猪人黯然退出，只有很少的一部分人支撑到了市场的回暖季节。

通过这次价格波动，家家户户养猪的盛况烟消云散了，剩下的差不多都是各养几十头猪的小规模专业户。而去年的大降价和蓝耳病毒的爆发，又把他们中的大多数击倒在地，一蹶不振。

说这话的是上洞村仅存的养猪户邓其方。在他看来，当地蓝耳病的根源是2005年以来才从无到有的生猪流通现象。不然，怎么以前就从没闹过这邪了门的病呢？

不论病源何在，可以肯定的是，红极一时的常宁养猪业已经彻底垮掉了。

邓其方养了将近一百三十头猪。在我们八月九日上午的谈话前，其中的一些猪刚刚开始发病；邻近的中义村人口在八百左右，是昔日养猪大村，但坚持至今的只有三户，所养猪总数不过五百头；稍远一点的乌联村有八百二十四人，2001年前后也曾见证过一户养一头母猪的短暂辉煌，当下养猪总数不到一百头。

不比不知道，一出荒诞剧正在常宁上演：张兴荣和弟弟张兴富已悄然跃居当地身家最盛、存栏猪数最多的专业养猪农户之列，而他们一共才养了二百四十多头猪。更加讽刺的是，人口超过一千的梅塘村，实际上也再找不出第二户养猪的人家了：除了养一百多头猪的张兴荣表姐夫以外，村里唯一其他的养猪户在上个月因为六合彩被判了刑，三十多头猪不得不都交给妻子打点。而直到今天，村子里的绝大多数已婚女人还是足不出户的全职太太。谁能指望他的妻子就可以既养孩子又养猪，赚钱持家两不误呢？

还坚持养猪的最怕蓝耳病毒，而像乌联村秘书李书义和东湖村菜农邓如金（音）这样早几年就放弃了养猪的当地农民，最怕的还是居高不下的市场风险。

市场风险让养猪户的积极性跌至谷底

张兴荣半躺在李书义家破旧的睡椅上解释说，养猪散户们也开始关注市场风险，这本身就说明经过几年来的数次价格波动，农民养猪已经趋于理性。

我宁愿相信这种不无道理的说法，但严峻的现实就在眼前。驼背的李书义沉默地在一张板凳上坐着，身后是斑驳的墙壁。那上面早就被撕得不成样子，什么都没有剩下，除了一张孑然而立的奖状：这是1998年他女儿小学五年级时在学校文艺汇演上得到的纪念。她早就到广东打工去了，今年过年也没有回家，因为钱不够。

李书义们的沉默，或许就是“理性”的表现吧。他们自然要更加关注市场风险，因为他们老了，子女不在身边。我去实地采访的四个村落，居住人口都只有全村人口的一半上下。大多数青年劳力都去了广东，还有个别的在福建打工。

跟另外三个村比，乌联村的居民还要更少一些，李秘书告诉了我原因：“童工现象在我们这里也是有的”。他躬着身子说，出外打工的娃娃们一旦遇上检查人员，大一点的就借成年人的身份证用，小一点的就躲起来。

所有这些村子都成了老人和娃娃们的天下。这些人养猪，怎么能赛得过二三十岁的张家兄弟呢？

可即便是他们这些坚持到底的养猪农户的积极性，也随着猪价的急剧飞涨而一路狂降。现在，养猪户的积极性已经跌至谷底。他们说，这是一系列因素相互作用的结果。

最直接的因素是，普通养猪户从近期猪价暴涨中所得的利润并不大。张兴荣说：“钱是赚了的，但必须综合起来看我们养猪的这些年，必须从低谷到高峰一起算。就算是现在，也是养得好的赚钱，养不好的一样赔钱。只看到高峰期这一段是不行的。”

“零五年到零六年上半年，我每养一头猪要亏四百块钱。可这四百块钱大家就不考虑了。那就不是钱啦？难道我们亏的钱不是钱，我们赚的钱就是钱？不能这样说。”

目前，张兴荣养猪的纯利润是每月三千块钱左右。但按他自己的话来讲，这其中的一个重要原因是他运气好，既踩在了那些倒掉的养猪户肩膀上，又没有受到蓝耳病的威胁。

但运气总是有个完的。到时候怎么办呢？

到时候，“几百头猪要是得了病，我们得花掉几十万，”中义村的养猪龙头郭祥伦解释道。

按照张兴荣八月八号的估算，常宁有大约百分之三十的猪－主要是母猪－得了蓝耳病，而七成的病猪已经死亡。

“再过两个月，就没得猪了，”郭祥伦说。

政府缺位：农业部的免费疫苗猪农难以拿到

问题的关键是，在与蓝耳病毒的角力过程中，养猪农户们落了单。而“只靠我们自己是没用的”－这不仅是邓其方的个人观点，也是当地猪农的一致意见。

但为了控制蓝耳病疫情、提高猪农积极性，中央政府和各部委已经连续出台了多项优惠政策，也下拨了数额可观的津贴与疫苗。为什么邓其方这样的农户还在抱怨“【养猪户种种困难的】主要原因是政府不重视”呢？

任何政策的实施都是需要时间的－这是一个不争的事实。而在此之外，接受采访的村民普遍将矛头指向了基层行政部门的一系列执行缺位。

自去年猪农与县屠宰场爆发冲突后，常宁就不再从农村收购猪肉了，而是从广西和云南进货。张兴荣说，市里吃的这些猪肉，有三分之一都是死猪肉－“这些猪在卸车的时候就死了。”

“每头猪杀了之后都要劈成两边。我们这里肉食水产公司的做法是，卖肉的时候，每劈一边好肉去，就要带一腿死猪肉。这是必须要带过去的。市场上基本都是这个样子。”

“税务局和检疫的人员都在那里，但视而不见。死猪肉通过他们就变成合法的了。”

养猪户们说，他们去年那次争执的焦点是屠宰场的黑心肠。一个又一个的农民告诉我，他们如果要向常宁这家唯一的屠宰场卖猪，就要接受它闻所未闻的报价：不仅要每斤肉都付六毛钱的税，还得搭上猪的所有内脏器官。

“屠宰场每年都能挣两百万左右。这两百万就是从消费者身上抠过来的，”张兴荣说。

而只有过了这关，当地畜牧局才会按一块五一头的价格，给农户的猪打上检疫标识。之后，农业部免费向猪农们发放的蓝耳病疫苗中的“很小一部分”才能卖到他们手中。

张兴荣说，截止到八月八号，常宁只有差不多百分之十的猪农拿到了他们应得的疫苗。郭祥伦就属于那另外的百分之九十：他直到八月六号才知道县里已经领到了疫苗，而按邓其方的说法，这些疫苗从六月开始就已经在常宁积压，“不少已经通过内部关系发放出去了”。

邓其方通过关系拿到了两瓶20毫升装的疫苗，但这连一头健康猪的量都不够。老实的郭祥伦则干脆花了半天功夫，到衡阳市买了些一百八十块一瓶的100毫升装疫苗。他说，这应该能管二十几头猪了。

“可我既不知道这能用多久，也不知道它究竟有没有效果－根本就没得说明书。我看，到头来这些钱也就是买了个心理安慰而已，”他说。

张兴荣的生猪保健秘方是从网上学来的：中医药食补。“我自己配了十来种包括金银花、柴胡、黄芪、鱼腥草、甘草、蒲公英、板蓝根等等清热解毒、增强免疫力的中药，粉碎了给猪拌到饲料里吃。”

每过九天，他就把这些自制的保健品给猪连续喂上六天，屡试不爽。“中医药保健的效果比西药要好得多，”他说。

在阳光灿烂的日子里，一头健康的猪必须首先得干净，生活环境也要舒适凉爽。而猪是最不讲干净的。不只是不讲干净而已，它简直太懒了，懒到能安于长时间横躺在自个儿的粪尿上边一动不动的歇息，一来方便，二来凉快。

这样，猪农们的活计可就多了。他们不仅要在猪舍里安置风扇，还得每天都给这些大猪小猪们洗四回澡。不然，猪得病的几率就要大大地高了，更甭提在这大热天里，中暑也能致命。

等夏天一过，坏事就全没啦，猪农们对彼此说。

可是夏天结束的时候，他们和地方机构的僵持局面就能随之结束吗？村里可没有像样的屠宰场，而单打独斗的屠户一天最多也就杀那么一头猪。

跑猪人郭祥宝的生意就是这么来的。这位张兴荣口中的“中介”是走村串户，哪里有活就到哪里去。他把脑袋上顶着的草帽摘下来，一边扇风一边对我说，现在的常宁，农村的猪都是自产自销、自生自灭，跟城市里头半点瓜葛也没有。

可就是这样，县里边竟然还不知怎么就成立了一个跟猪农从无联系，却自吹每年都要向社会“贡献几十万头猪”的养猪协会。

价格暴涨不是喜事，农民盼望智力支持

在自家床上坐着的张兴荣告诉我：“猪价涨多了的话，社会反响比较大，市场压力比较大，政府压力也比较大。对于我们养猪的来说，一头猪一年能赚个百八十块钱就行了。我们既不奢求一头猪非得赚几百块钱，也不希望养头猪出来就亏几百块钱。我们谁也不想靠养猪发好大的财。付出一定的劳动，能够得到适当的回报，这就行了。”

站在常宁市东湖路一角的邓其方也是这么说的。他的周围是几个邻村的养猪户和好奇的市民，这些人谁都没见过记者，大家争先恐后地凑了过来，一个个都低声嘀咕着什么。在他们的嘀咕声中，邓其方说：“涨价对我们个人的短期利益来讲是好事，对社会的整体利益来讲不是好事。我不希望就这么继续涨下去。”

既然不希望继续涨价，那么他们希望的是什么呢？

这位朴实的中年人只是不停地搓着双手。在想了又想之后，他几乎是面带愧色地对我说：“我们都是农民，文化素质比较低，没有什么养猪知识。要说希望，我们希望城市里边受过教育的人才能来帮帮我们养猪。”

张兴荣和另几个养猪户默默地点着头。一百多米以外就是常宁的农村，阳光毫无保留地映射在他们充满坎坷的回家之路上。村村通很快就将惠及这里。但在此之前，就像猪农们说的那样，让夏天先过去吧。

Author's note: A three-day investigative trip to the lowest end of China's pig market in search of recent price fluctuations' ups and downs for common breeders broke several myths and revealed plenty of unfinished business.

30-year-old Zhang Xingrong’s home in the village is five kilometers or, to be precise, over 40 small bends, 10 switchbacks, and a 40-year-old stone bridge away from town. The glass from his shabby motorcycle’s left viewfinder broke and dropped on the bumpy road during my first trip there, but Zhang didn’t care. He has experienced only more bumps as a local pig breeder.

Even late summer heat, for example, has overwhelmed the heat of pig prices for him. Six o’clock on a morning days before my visit, one of Zhang’s two remaining sows was about to farrow. It almost bred 19 that day – the highest number at one farrow in his career – but fainted from the August sun in the process.

By night, he had pulled 17 dead piglets one by one out of the sow’s womb. When he was done, the sow was dying alongside its two weak piglets.

He wasn’t going to let the mother die.

When the sun rose again, Zhang had given it two bottles each of glucose and saline water. The sow was saved, but the two piglets both died within the week.

The 19 dead piglets meant a loss of 5,000 yuan. But in Changning, a prefecture of 846,000 people under Hengyang city of the central Hunan province, the young peasant has reasons to consider himself lucky compared to nearby pig breeders, who have been thrown into an endless battle with persisting blue-ear disease outbreaks.

This would include Li Xiaoman of Shangdong village, whose only sow and nine piglets all died on August 6, five days after they caught the disease. Worse, Li was not the only one who had to give up pig breeding. All nine sows and 90 piglets the village’s Dadong group raised have died from blue-ear since this month. The villagers spent over 3,000 yuan in trying to save the sows, but nothing helped.

Li fathers two children, one in high school and the other in junior high. Farming and construction are the only remaining choices for the failed breeder, but neither will offer enough money for both his kids.

"One of them has to drop out," he told China Daily.

A famous rice-growing county in the 1970s, Changning has gradually become a major pig breeder since the reform and opening up. During its golden period in the 1990s, every household in all villages – some say 95 percent of peasants – would at least breed one sow at any given time. Back then, over ten freight cars, each full with some 130 pigs, were delivered to Guangdong province each day.

But sharp price reductions and emerging blue-ear outbreaks last year drove the majority of local breeders out of business, Deng Qifang, Shangdong's only remaining breeder, said.

He attributed the disease to livestock flow from other provinces, which was virtually non-existent before 2005.

Whatever the source of the disease, pig breeding has no doubt collapsed as an industry and a major source of revenue in this prefecture.

Deng now raises about 130 pigs, some of which had just begun to show symptoms of blue-ear before our conversation on August 9. In Zhongyi village, a former pig breeding powerhouse with about 800 people, three households still raise a total of no more than 500 pigs. The 824 people in the poorer Wulian village breeds not even 100 pigs.

The some 240 pigs Zhang Xingrong and his younger brother raise are arguably the most among all individual pig breeders in Changning. His larger family is also now effectively the only pig breeding family in the 1,000-people Meitang village: The husband of Zhang’s auntie’s daughter raises over 100 pigs, and the other villager who breeds about 30 pigs was imprisoned last month for illegal lottery.

The foremost concern for those who still breed pigs is the blue-ear disease, and for ones who don’t – such as Wulian village secretary Li Shuyi and Donghu village’s Deng Rujin – high market risk is the major barrier of reentry.

Such concern is natural because the Zhangs are also the youngest breeders in all of Changning. Others are well into their late 40s and early 50s. Most young people – roughly half the local peasant population – are working in Guangdong, and a few in the coastal Fujian province.

As for the enduring pig breeders, enthusiasm has reached an all-time low although pork price stands at a record-high. According to them, this is due to several factors.

For one, the profit from this “unusually long” round of price hike has only barely made up for their tremendous losses last year. Zhang Xingrong earns around 3,000 yuan per month from pig breeding. Yet this is partially because, in his words, “I’ve been lucky enough to step on the shoulders of the smaller breeders who were swept out of the market during drastic declines, and to not have been affected by blue-ear.”

He is still very worried about what would happen if that luck one day fades.

“Several hundred pigs [with blue-ear] will cost us tens of thousands [of yuan],” Guo Xianglun, Zhongyi village’s leading pig breeder, explained.

According to Zhang’s estimate on August 8, 30 percent of Changning’s pigs – mostly sows – had been affected, and 70 percent of those affected had already died.

“In two months, there will be no pig left,” Guo said.

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